Analytics
Resolved No on 6 Aug 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 1.9% on 14 Jan 2024. Before it settled, across the 206 daily closes on record from 14 Jan 2024 to 6 Aug 2024, the highest close was 19.6% on 20 Jul 2024 and the lowest 0.1% on 5 Aug 2024. Its largest one-day move was 12 points up, to 19.3% on 19 Jul 2024. $28.12M traded over the market's life.
366 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Aug 7, 11:26 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 206 points, 14 Jan 2024 – 6 Aug 2024, chart shows 0%–25%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 14 Jan 2024 | 1.9% |
| 6 Aug 2024 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 19.54M |
| asdf8888 | Yes | 1.97M |
| SuperApe | Yes | 1.33M |
This is a market on who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 presidential election.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/democratic-nominee-2024
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
| 022221 | Yes | 768.92K |
| premature-facts | Yes | 501.12K |
| haveconviction | Yes | 352.01K |
| xvGgn8w | Yes | 328.55K |
| goaty | Yes | 323.64K |
| BigMikeBeliever | Yes | 206.33K |
| Assured-Short | Yes | 201.06K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
