
Resolved No on 1 Apr 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 78.3%. Yes opened at 43% on 5 Mar 2026. Before it settled, the high was 48% on 21 Mar 2026 and the low 2.2% on 20 Mar 2026. Its largest one-day move was 46 points up, to 48% on 21 Mar 2026. $2.35K traded over the market's life.
10 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Apr 2, 12:18 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 20 points, 5 Mar 2026 – 29 Mar 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 5 Mar 2026 | 43.0% |
| 29 Mar 2026 | 21.6% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Northenmostt | Yes | 83.02 |
| vger7 | Yes | 40 |
| Utter-Downgrade | Yes | 15 |
| Lavincey | Yes | 10 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) is a measure of the cost of borrowing cash overnight, collateralized by US Treasury securities. SOFR is used to price loans, bonds, derivatives, and more. The SOFR rate is published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York each business day at 8:00 AM ET, for the previous business day. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Federal Reserve Bank of New York publishes a daily SOFR rate (%) equal to or above the listed value for any business day between March 1 and March 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as the SOFR rate is equal to or above the listed value during the specified period, or when SOFR data is published for the final business day on or before March 31, 2026. If no data is published for the final business day on or before March 31, 2026 by April 07, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Business day refers to any day treated as such by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Any revisions to the daily SOFR values published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York prior to the release of SOFR data for the final business day on or before March 31, 2026 will be considered; however, these revisions will not disqualify a previously published SOFR rate from counting. Any revisions published after the release of SOFR data for the final business day on or before March 31, 2026 will not be considered. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, specifically the Secured Overnight Financing Rate Data table at https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/reference-rates/sofr. Note: This market’s resolution source publishes the SOFR rate to two decimal places (e.g. 3.65%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-sofr-hit-in-march
| Mojito9 | Yes | 10 |
| rocketcrypto | Yes | 5 |
| jjzzh | Yes | 5 |
| rikitikitaki | Yes | 5 |
| ffsFsfq | Yes | 0.08 |
| Ardtysrt01 | Yes | 0.01 |
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