Analytics
Resolved Yes on 16 Mar 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 96.8%. Yes opened at 30% on 30 Sep 2025. Before it settled, across the 169 daily closes on record from 30 Sep 2025 to 16 Mar 2026, the highest close was 96.8% on 16 Mar 2026 and the lowest 27% on 12 Oct 2025. Its largest one-day move was 18 points down, to 27% on 12 Oct 2025.
151 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Mar 17, 5:46 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 169 points, 30 Sep 2025 – 16 Mar 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 30 Sep 2025 | 30.0% |
| 16 Mar 2026 | 96.8% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 57.82K |
| jugy06 | No | 6.52K |
| dirtybanana | No | 5.29K |
The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 98th Academy Awards in 2026, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 22, followed by the ceremony on March 15, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed movie that wins the 98th Academy Award for Best Original Screenplay. If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Original Screenplay when the 2026 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order. If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/oscars-2026-best-original-screenplay-winner
| ajmorcombe | No | 5.02K |
| Nicksypoo | No | 3.2K |
| IgnorantCypher | No | 1.67K |
| champagnechaos999 | No | 1.5K |
| LynxTitan | No | 1.18K |
| Benjamin257 | No | 1K |
| Trifling-Barbecue | No | 910 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
