Will 'Sinners' gross less than $44m on opening weekend?

Resolved

No, settled Apr 21, 2025 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$142.7K

Resolved

Settled

Apr 21, 2025 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 21 Apr 2025.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.2%. Yes opened at 79% on 19 Apr 2025. Before it settled, across the 3 daily closes on record from 19 Apr 2025 to 21 Apr 2025, the highest close was 79% on 19 Apr 2025 and the lowest 0.9% on 21 Apr 2025. Its largest one-day move was 51 points down, to 28.5% on 20 Apr 2025. $142.68K traded over the market's life.

28 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Apr 23, 12:26 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 3 points, 19 Apr 2025 – 21 Apr 2025

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
19 Apr 2025	79.0%
21 Apr 2025	0.9%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Indigo Signal 2966	No	26.39K
lotuseater	Yes	1.5K
Bold Scout 481E	Yes	1.19K
Royal Ledger 3301	Yes	1.02K

10 of 28 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve according to how much “Sinners” (2025) will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The “Box Office” https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Sinners-(2025)#tab=summary will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (April 18 - April 20) are final (i.e. not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is no final data available by April 21, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.