Analytics
Resolved No on 11 Oct 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.1%. Yes opened at 50% on 9 Oct 2025. Before it settled, across the 3 daily closes on record from 9 Oct 2025 to 11 Oct 2025, the highest close was 66.5% on 10 Oct 2025 and the lowest 0.9% on 11 Oct 2025. Its largest one-day move was 66 points down, to 0.9% on 11 Oct 2025. $126.94 traded over the market's life.
1 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 12, 12:36 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 3 points, 9 Oct 2025 – 11 Oct 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 9 Oct 2025 | 50.0% |
| 11 Oct 2025 | 0.9% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| IPhone | Yes | 18.67 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
Sam Altman is scheduled to appear on TBPN on October 10, at 12:00 PM ET with Bill Peebles: https://x.com/tbpn/status/1975627201044476123 This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sam Altman says the listed term at any point during his scheduled appearance on TBPN. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". If old clips or prerecorded videos are played during this appearance where Sam Altman is speaking, those clips will not count toward this market's resolution. Only live-recorded footage of the specified appearance will qualify. Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market. Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once). This market may only resolve to "No" if the specified appearance has been published in its entirety and the "Yes" condition has not been met. If the appearance has not aired in its entirety by October 10, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on what has aired up to that point. If no appearance is aired by this time, or if it is otherwise definitively cancelled by Sam Altman or TBPN, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be audio/video of the appearance.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/what-will-sam-altman-say-during-tbpn-on-october-10
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