Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 95.3%. Yes opened at 12.5% on 13 Jul 2023. Before it settled, across the 173 daily closes on record from 13 Jul 2023 to 1 Jan 2024, the highest close was 46.5% on 5 Aug 2023 and the lowest 1.4% on 30 Dec 2023. Its largest one-day move was 39 points up, to 46.5% on 5 Aug 2023. $57.91K traded over the market's life.
11 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 2, 8:04 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 173 points, 13 Jul 2023 – 1 Jan 2024
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 13 Jul 2023 | 12.5% |
| 1 Jan 2024 | 4.7% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Amber Tide 39E1 | Yes | 2.88K |
| allwedoiswin | Yes | 588.81 |
| Nasty | Yes | 150 |
[From ACX Mini-Grants: Impact Markets] This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official announcement of a ceasefire agreement, regardless of the ceasefire's length, between Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The ceasefire agreement must be acknowledged and accepted by both the Russian and Ukrainian governments to be considered valid. The ceasefire must apply to the entire territory of Ukraine as defined by the UN, including all regions currently involved in the conflict, to be considered valid. The specific date that the ceasefire agreement will take effect is not relevant to the resolution of this market. The only requirement is that the agreement must be announced before this market's end time.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-russia-ukraine-declare-a-ceasefire-by-eoy
| m55 | Yes | 111.11 |
| futureenjoyer | Yes | 90.91 |
| Personal-Commuter | Yes | 47.27 |
| boib | Yes | 45.45 |
| TheVillageDao | Yes | 38.46 |
| 005 | Yes | 25 |
| f3f3f3 | No | 0.03 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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