Analytics
Resolved No on 2 Mar 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 16% on 21 Feb 2026. Before it settled, across the 10 daily closes on record from 21 Feb 2026 to 2 Mar 2026, the highest close was 18.5% on 26 Feb 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 2 Mar 2026. Its largest one-day move was 17 points down, to 1.1% on 27 Feb 2026. $51.14K traded over the market's life.
38 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Mar 9, 10:45 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 10 points, 21 Feb 2026 – 2 Mar 2026, chart shows 0%–25%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 21 Feb 2026 | 16.0% |
| 2 Mar 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Russian Armed Forces initiate a drone, missile, or air strike on Kyiv municipality on the listed date Eastern European Time (EET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Russian Armed Forces that impact Kyiv municipality's ground territory. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of the Kyiv municipality counts. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on the Kyiv municipality's territory or cause damage. Confirmation of damage caused by at least one unintercepted projectile within the specified area is necessary to qualify. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by the Russian armed forces will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers; in the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official statements from the Ukrainian military (e.g., the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine) and Ukrainian government authorities, including the Kyiv City State Administration and the Mayor of Kyiv. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/russia-strike-on-kyiv-municipality-on-252
| Unbotheredking | Yes | 249.4 |
| Nasik | Yes | 239.33 |
| 0xRocket666 | Yes | 165 |
| Treasured-Zootsuit | Yes | 148.42 |
| tunshakong | Yes | 120.63 |
| b3tt3r | Yes | 118.6 |
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