Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Dec 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 98.9%. Yes opened at 48.5% on 30 Oct 2025. Before it settled, across the 33 daily closes on record from 30 Oct 2025 to 1 Dec 2025, the highest close was 58.5% on 31 Oct 2025 and the lowest 1.1% on 1 Dec 2025. Its largest one-day move was 19 points down, to 31.5% on 2 Nov 2025. $172.35K traded over the market's life.
84 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 12, 4:04 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 33 points, 30 Oct 2025 – 1 Dec 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 30 Oct 2025 | 48.5% |
| 1 Dec 2025 | 1.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Audrey.d | Yes | 10K |
| futureisyours | Yes | 2.9K |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 1.09K |
| mooger | Yes | 1.07K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Vilne in Donetsk Oblast by November 30, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET. Territory will be considered captured if any part of Vilne is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. Once Russia captures territory of Vilne, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the territory of Vilne as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap is rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-russia-recapture-territory-in-vilne-by-november-30
| amamori | Yes | 999.99 |
| fgfffffg555 | Yes | 900 |
| nicotyr | Yes | 599.99 |
| 0x5huy | Yes | 521.9 |
| EdvardRunch | Yes | 500 |
| dealpeace | Yes | 290 |
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