Analytics
Resolved Yes on 12 Mar 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 97%. Yes opened at 52.5% on 8 Mar 2025. Before it settled, across the 5 daily closes on record from 8 Mar 2025 to 12 Mar 2025, the highest close was 97% on 12 Mar 2025 and the lowest 52.5% on 8 Mar 2025. Its largest one-day move was 16 points up, to 68.5% on 9 Mar 2025. $452.81K traded over the market's life.
26 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Mar 13, 8:22 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 5 points, 8 Mar 2025 – 12 Mar 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 8 Mar 2025 | 52.5% |
| 12 Mar 2025 | 97.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Dimonthebest23 | No | 18.84K |
| midocean | No | 13.17K |
| Bcrypz | No | 12.45K |
| ahahahah | No | 3.2K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Sudzha railroad station located on Privokzal'naya ulitsa by March 31, 2025 at 11:59 PM ET. The railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by April 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”. Once Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Train Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/sudzha+train+station.png Sudzha Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Sudzha+location.jpeg Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/s7MXZ3FSQBaVkAMk9 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
| viktorurolog16 | No | 2.36K |
| dcndy1 | No | 1K |
| skname | No | 829.83 |
| SlepoyVS | No | 281.65 |
| akaTisT | No | 239.42 |
| Dreary-Indication | No | 215.97 |
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-russia-recapture-sudzha-by
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