Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 5.5% on 29 May 2025. Before it settled, the high was 5.5% on 29 May 2025 and the low 0.1% on 27 Dec 2025. $199.99K traded over the market's life.
78 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 2, 8:31 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 219 points · 29 May 2025 – 1 Jan 2026 · axis zoomed to 0%–10%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 29 May 2025 | 5.5% |
| 1 Jan 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| prapor335 | Yes | 709.48 |
| Anjun | Yes | 655.65 |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 439 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Finland between May 28 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Finland or Russia as of May 28, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. Hybrid or “grey zone” operations conducted by unmarked personnel will qualify if they are confirmed to be Russian operatives and are intended to establish de facto control over territory, as occurred in Crimea (2014) or Donbas (2014–2022). The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-russia-invade-finland-in-2025
| stubbornWizard | Yes | 366.67 |
| Balhaar | Yes | 285.71 |
| JTXEXE | Yes | 251.3 |
| Bold Scout BD7E | Yes | 189.94 |
| JustWinning | Yes | 178 |
| C82 | Yes | 173.33 |
| Jade Harbor B075 | Yes | 164.96 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
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