Analytics
Yes is at 56.5%, down 2.5 points from 59% when the market opened on 23 Oct 2026.
Across the 2 daily closes on record from 23 Oct 2026 to 23 Oct 2026, the highest close was 59% on 23 Oct 2026 and the lowest 56.5% on 23 Oct 2026.
It is one of 7 markets under “Which cities will Russia enter by June 30, 2027?”.
$83.09 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $1.01K since listing. The order book holds $896.97, with a 29.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask.
The largest Yes position is rexcom with 340 shares; the largest No position is viktorurolog16 with 174.
Trading closes on 1 Jul 2027.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 23, 8:06 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 2 points, 23 Oct 2026 – 23 Oct 2026, chart shows 52%–64%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 23 Oct 2026 | 59.0% |
| 23 Oct 2026 | 56.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| rexcom | Yes | 339.97 |
| viktorurolog16 | No | 173.87 |
| GuyFromTinder | No | 59 |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Kramatorsk (48.73714435420954° N, 37.589106045927714° E; https://maps.app.goo.gl/TVY1bAwoc98W2L949) between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. The boundaries of the municipality are those shown under the “Ukrainian Settlements” layer on the ISW map. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas - Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain - Assessed Russian Advances Shading under the following layers will not qualify: - Claimed Russian Territory Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/which-cities-will-russia-enter-by-june-30-2027
| AJSV |
| No |
| 51.21 |
| 2B9S | Yes | 50 |
| MusakaKing | No | 25.97 |
| SulkingCrypto | No | 24 |
| cloverpmq2 | Yes | 21 |
| uprun | No | 21 |
| Flingflonger | Yes | 20 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
