Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jul 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 27.5% on 27 Dec 2025. Before it settled, across the 164 daily closes on record from 27 Dec 2025 to 1 Jul 2026 (23 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 27.5% on 27 Dec 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 30 Jun 2026. Its largest one-day move was 11 points down, to 16.5% on 28 Dec 2025. $590.41K traded over the market's life.
48 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jul 1, 8:44 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 164 points, 27 Dec 2025 – 1 Jul 2026, chart shows 0%–40%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 27 Dec 2025 | 27.5% |
| 1 Jul 2026 | 0.1% |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Kharkiv (https://maps.app.goo.gl/m484AfKV3TTS8nB68) by June 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Territory will be considered captured if any part of the city or settlement is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/which-cities-will-russia-enter-by-june-30
| labistiiia | Yes | 1K |
| norealtime | Yes | 1K |
| Kutra | Yes | 700 |
| DarthTyranus | Yes | 679.87 |
| MuchAdo2BRN2B | Yes | 542.71 |
| GaRfVXI | Yes | 450.91 |
| Hazya | Yes | 400.58 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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