Analytics
Resolved No on 4 Oct 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 96%. Yes opened at 61% on 25 Sep 2024. Before it settled, across the 10 daily closes on record from 25 Sep 2024 to 4 Oct 2024, the highest close was 73% on 26 Sep 2024 and the lowest 3.4% on 2 Oct 2024. Its largest one-day move was 34 points down, to 18% on 28 Sep 2024. $225.47K traded over the market's life.
41 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 5, 8:26 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 10 points, 25 Sep 2024 – 4 Oct 2024
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 25 Sep 2024 | 61.0% |
| 4 Oct 2024 | 4.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Mantistabogin | Yes | 3.19K |
| NikitaSVO | Yes | 77.94 |
| polkahome | Yes | 53.57 |
| bnb15 | Yes | 30.3 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia controls the intersection of Desantnykiv Vulytsia and Shakhtarska Vulytsia in Vuhledar Ukraine by Septmeber 30, 2024 at 11:59 PM ET. The intersection will be considered captured if the intersection where the roads meet is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by September 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”. Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/vuhledar2.jpeg Vuhledar Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/vuhledar1.jpeg Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/oJfHH5ye5Htwun4n7 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-russia-capture-vuhledar-before-october
| DonaldDucky | Yes | 25 |
| LeoparodiArg | Yes | 18.52 |
| DUDDU | Yes | 12.64 |
| John2200220022 | Yes | 2.89 |
| yoots-700 | Yes | 1.69 |
| sam663 | Yes | 1.37 |
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