
Resolved No on 1 Nov 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.7%. Yes opened at 30.5% on 8 Oct 2025. Before it settled, across the 25 daily closes on record from 8 Oct 2025 to 1 Nov 2025, the highest close was 30.5% on 8 Oct 2025 and the lowest 0.3% on 1 Nov 2025. Its largest one-day move was 13 points down, to 17.5% on 9 Oct 2025. $77.99K traded over the market's life.
35 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Nov 2, 8:32 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 25 points, 8 Oct 2025 – 1 Nov 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 8 Oct 2025 | 30.5% |
| 1 Nov 2025 | 0.3% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| tsihkodiives | Yes | 6.1K |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 1.72K |
| Savras | Yes | 1.64K |
| Crimson Falcon C79A | Yes | 745 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection between Tarasa Shevchenka vulytsia and Stepova vulytsia located in Uspenivka, Zaporizhia Oblast, by October 31, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET. The intersection station will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/U1.png Intersection Location in Uspenivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/U2.png Uspenivka location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/U3.png Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/LhYEjebr1N9eSn1M7 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
| Dankwizart420 | Yes | 278.01 |
| Mika777 | Yes | 201.77 |
| Monmo | Yes | 200 |
| Bright Signal 14DE | Yes | 147 |
| wiros | Yes | 100 |
| TomCZ | Yes | 66.67 |
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-russia-capture-uspenivka-by-october-31
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