Will Russia capture Toretsk before October?

geopoliticsResolved

No, settled Oct 1, 2024 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$311.9K

Resolved

Settled

Oct 1, 2024 UTC

Topic roomRussia–Ukraine

Where it stands

Resolved No on 1 Oct 2024.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 98.5%. Yes opened at 49.5% on 15 Aug 2024. Before it settled, across the 48 daily closes on record from 15 Aug 2024 to 1 Oct 2024, the highest close was 75% on 30 Aug 2024 and the lowest 1.6% on 1 Oct 2024. Its largest one-day move was 41 points up, to 47.7% on 22 Sep 2024. $311.89K traded over the market's life.

79 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Oct 2, 10:16 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 48 points, 15 Aug 2024 – 1 Oct 2024

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
15 Aug 2024	49.5%
1 Oct 2024	1.6%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
AD88F5D	Yes	551.3
DaSiEbe	Yes	444.16
AD8FDF6	Yes	412.07

10 of 79 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Church of St. Macarius in Toretsk located on Hrushevskoho Vulytsia by Septmeber 30, 2024 at 11:59 PM ET. The church will be considered captured if any part of building is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by September 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”. Once Russia captures the church, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Church Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Toretsk+Church+Location.png Toretsk Location (zoomed): https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Toretsk+Zoomed.png Toretsk Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Toretsk+Location.png Location on Google maps: https://www.google.com/maps/@48.3967133,37.8462825,426m/data=!3m1!1e3?authuser=0&entry=ttu The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.