
Resolved Yes on 19 Dec 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 99.7%. Yes opened at 41% on 3 Sep 2025. Before it settled, across the 109 daily closes on record from 3 Sep 2025 to 19 Dec 2025, the highest close was 99.7% on 19 Dec 2025 and the lowest 23% on 8 Nov 2025. Its largest one-day move was 29 points up, to 67.5% on 19 Nov 2025. $1.3M traded over the market's life.
239 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 19, 3:25 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 109 points, 3 Sep 2025 – 19 Dec 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 3 Sep 2025 | 41.0% |
| 19 Dec 2025 | 99.7% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Joe-Biden | No | 20K |
| Valid-Purity | No | 7.08K |
| Uniform-Bafflement | No | 4.3K |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Siversk railroad station located off of Zaliznychna Vulytsia by December 31, 2025 at 11:59 PM ET. The railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”. Once Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Train Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/siversk+train+station.jpeg Siversk Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/siversk+location.jpeg Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/WCVn7wGSy1i289Nw8 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
| No |
| 4.06K |
| zerglemon | No | 3.34K |
| viktorurolog16 | No | 2.78K |
| Brisk-Inability | No | 1.73K |
| Eric255 | No | 1.19K |
| Unhealthy-Cat | No | 1.11K |
| Potable-Twig | No | 961 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-russia-capture-siversk-by-september-30
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