Analytics
Resolved No on 1 May 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.4%. Yes opened at 12% on 31 Jan 2025. Before it settled, across the 91 daily closes on record from 31 Jan 2025 to 1 May 2025, the highest close was 17.5% on 4 Feb 2025 and the lowest 0.4% on 23 Apr 2025. Its largest one-day move was 7 points down, to 8.5% on 11 Feb 2025. $121.79K traded over the market's life.
8 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of May 2, 8:20 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 91 points, 31 Jan 2025 – 1 May 2025, chart shows 0%–25%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 31 Jan 2025 | 12.0% |
| 1 May 2025 | 0.6% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Protos | Yes | 10.13K |
| Checkmate2024 | Yes | 8.42 |
| smartmoney.no.smart.no.money | Yes | 0.02 |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Siversk railroad station located off of Zaliznychna Vulytsia by April 30, 2025 at 11:59 PM ET. The railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by April 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”. Once Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Train Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/siversk+train+station.jpeg Siversk Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/siversk+location.jpeg Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/WCVn7wGSy1i289Nw8 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
Official listing:
| No |
| 0.01 |
| antoshkavlasio | No | 0.01 |
| Karekken | No | 0.01 |
| ujaKanga | Yes | 0.01 |
| JDULIA | No | 0.01 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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