Will Russia capture Siversk before December?

geopoliticsResolved

No, settled Dec 1, 2024 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$217.3K

Resolved

Settled

Dec 1, 2024 UTC

Topic roomRussia–Ukraine

Where it stands

Resolved No on 1 Dec 2024.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.8%. Yes opened at 23% on 4 Oct 2024. Before it settled, across the 59 daily closes on record from 4 Oct 2024 to 1 Dec 2024, the highest close was 23% on 4 Oct 2024 and the lowest 0.3% on 1 Dec 2024. Its largest one-day move was 7 points down, to 14.5% on 7 Oct 2024. $217.34K traded over the market's life.

49 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Dec 2, 6:11 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 59 points, 4 Oct 2024 – 1 Dec 2024, chart shows 0%–30%

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
4 Oct 2024	23.0%
1 Dec 2024	0.3%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
vuiz	Yes	357.77
Verifiable-Cage	Yes	99.5
Aries74	Yes	55.53

10 of 49 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Siversk railroad station located off of Zaliznychna Vulytsia by November 30, 2024 at 11:59 PM ET. The railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by November 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”. Once Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Train Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/siversk+train+station.jpeg Siversk Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/siversk+location.jpeg Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/WCVn7wGSy1i289Nw8 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.