Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Dec 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.8%. Yes opened at 71.5% on 31 Oct 2025. Before it settled, across the 32 daily closes on record from 31 Oct 2025 to 1 Dec 2025, the highest close was 71.5% on 31 Oct 2025 and the lowest 0.3% on 1 Dec 2025. Its largest one-day move was 21 points up, to 45.5% on 14 Nov 2025. $292.23K traded over the market's life.
97 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Mar 24, 2:22 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 32 points, 31 Oct 2025 – 1 Dec 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 31 Oct 2025 | 71.5% |
| 1 Dec 2025 | 0.3% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Audrey.d | Yes | 24.7K |
| amamori | Yes | 5K |
| gamesgood | Yes | 2.91K |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 695.57 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection between T-05-15 and Shakhtarskoi Slavy vulytsia located in Rodyns'ke by November 30, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET. The intersection station will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by November 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/rodynske+intersection+zoom.png Intersection Location in Rodyns'ke: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/rodynske+intersection.png Rodyns'ke location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/rodynske.jpeg Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/oFYUB5RUaKXaPvVT9 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
| Fattytuna | Yes | 589.99 |
| shourangpingban | Yes | 400.13 |
| notshit | Yes | 300 |
| Kaijipt | Yes | 249.87 |
| Yxanadu | Yes | 216.14 |
| Mixed-Bankbook | Yes | 211.8 |
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-russia-capture-rodynske-by-september-15
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