
Resolved Yes on 16 Nov 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 93.8%. Yes opened at 51.5% on 12 Nov 2025. Before it settled, across the 5 daily closes on record from 12 Nov 2025 to 16 Nov 2025, the highest close was 94% on 13 Nov 2025 and the lowest 51.5% on 12 Nov 2025. Its largest one-day move was 42 points up, to 94% on 13 Nov 2025. $113.56K traded over the market's life.
51 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Nov 26, 7:56 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 5 points, 12 Nov 2025 – 16 Nov 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 12 Nov 2025 | 51.5% |
| 16 Nov 2025 | 93.8% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Crimson Falcon C79A | No | 3.02K |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | No | 1.23K |
| qESSvMqPzA | No | 917 |
| viktorurolog16 | No | 820.93 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 47.741117, 36.316282 in Rivnopillia by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/1-178cd400d3.png Intersection Location in Rivnopillia: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/2-469f796758.png Rivnopillia Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/3-dbc721e799.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/1VoFbZ3bPiGcQtpm8 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
| Bright Signal 14DE | No | 604 |
| getpoorordietryin | No | 409.47 |
| jcflqFrbQt | No | 300 |
| PyezXxUwWo | No | 300 |
| GfYlfnNSMQ | No | 300 |
| Crimson Vector F03A | No | 249 |
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-russia-capture-rivnopillia-by-december-31
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