Will Russia capture Pokrovsk in 2024?

Resolved

No, settled Jan 1, 2025 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$1.2M

Resolved

Settled

Jan 1, 2025 UTC

Topic roomRussia–Ukraine

Where it stands

Resolved No on 1 Jan 2025.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 23% on 29 Oct 2024. Before it settled, across the 65 daily closes on record from 29 Oct 2024 to 1 Jan 2025, the highest close was 25.5% on 2 Nov 2024 and the lowest 0.1% on 31 Dec 2024. Its largest one-day move was 6.1 points up, to 12.8% on 18 Dec 2024. $1.18M traded over the market's life.

90 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Jan 2, 8:29 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 65 points, 29 Oct 2024 – 1 Jan 2025, chart shows 0%–40%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
RQ123456789	Yes	14.62K
aaddddd	Yes	12.45K
Superguy	Yes	10.01K

10 of 90 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures St. Michael's church in Pokrovsk located on Hrushevskoho Vulytsia by December 31, 2024 at 11:59 PM ET. The church will be considered captured if any part of building is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”. Once Russia captures the church, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Church Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Pokrovsk+Church+Location.png Pokrovsk Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Pokrovosk+Location.png Location on Google maps: https://www.google.com/maps/@48.2794472,37.1801207,592m/data=!3m1!1e3?entry=ttu The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.