Analytics
Resolved Yes on 8 Aug 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 65.5%. Yes opened at 28% on 8 Jul 2025. Before it settled, across the 32 daily closes on record from 8 Jul 2025 to 8 Aug 2025, the highest close was 90% on 2 Aug 2025 and the lowest 28% on 8 Jul 2025. Its largest one-day move was 9.5 points down, to 74% on 7 Aug 2025. $405.55K traded over the market's life.
68 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Aug 10, 12:54 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 32 points, 8 Jul 2025 – 8 Aug 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 8 Jul 2025 | 28.0% |
| 8 Aug 2025 | 65.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| viktorurolog16 | No | 15.69K |
| KimbalMusk | No | 3.92K |
| Gatortailjohnny | No | 2K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures St. Michael's church in Pokrovsk located on Hrushevskoho Vulytsia by October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. The church will be considered captured if any part of building is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”. Once Russia captures the church, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Church Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Pokrovsk+Church+Location.png Pokrovsk Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Pokrovosk+Location.png Location on Google maps: https://www.google.com/maps/@48.2794472,37.1801207,592m/data=!3m1!1e3 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
| No |
| 2K |
| doomah | No | 1.73K |
| Ivan17 | No | 1.1K |
| ghvgh | No | 1.08K |
| vovovovo | No | 1.08K |
| Lovehappen | No | 1K |
| letsdoit | No | 1K |
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-russia-capture-pokrovsk-by
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
