Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by March 31?

Resolved

No, settled Apr 1, 2025 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$227.7K

Resolved

Settled

Apr 1, 2025 UTC

Topic roomRussia–Ukraine

Where it stands

Resolved No on 1 Apr 2025.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 12% on 31 Jan 2025. Before it settled, across the 61 daily closes on record from 31 Jan 2025 to 1 Apr 2025, the highest close was 14% on 3 Feb 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 1 Apr 2025. $227.7K traded over the market's life.

38 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Apr 2, 6:56 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 61 points, 31 Jan 2025 – 1 Apr 2025, chart shows 0%–20%

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
31 Jan 2025	12.0%
1 Apr 2025	0.1%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
BIGCAT	Yes	703.33
GmOPqRwgii	Yes	337
kSEsOhnZJT	Yes	327

10 of 38 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures St. Michael's church in Pokrovsk located on Hrushevskoho Vulytsia by March 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. The church will be considered captured if any part of building is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by March 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”. Once Russia captures the church, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Church Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Pokrovsk+Church+Location.png Pokrovsk Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Pokrovosk+Location.png Location on Google maps: https://www.google.com/maps/@48.2794472,37.1801207,592m/data=!3m1!1e3 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.