
Resolved No on 1 Nov 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.3%. Yes opened at 40% on 15 Aug 2024. Before it settled, across the 79 daily closes on record from 15 Aug 2024 to 1 Nov 2024, the highest close was 66% on 31 Aug 2024 and the lowest 0.7% on 31 Oct 2024. Its largest one-day move was 11 points down, to 36% on 6 Sep 2024. $478.99K traded over the market's life.
72 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Nov 2, 3:37 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 79 points, 15 Aug 2024 – 1 Nov 2024
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 15 Aug 2024 | 40.0% |
| 1 Nov 2024 | 0.7% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| PolyMarker | Yes | 4.37K |
| momuss | Yes | 2.71K |
| Dubya | Yes | 729.99 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures St. Michael's church in Pokrovsk located on Hrushevskoho Vulytsia by October 31, 2024 at 11:59 PM ET. The church will be considered captured if any part of building is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by October 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”. Once Russia captures the church, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Church Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Pokrovsk+Church+Location.png Pokrovsk Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Pokrovosk+Location.png Location on Google maps: https://www.google.com/maps/@48.2794472,37.1801207,592m/data=!3m1!1e3?entry=ttu The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
| Yes |
| 667.14 |
| Agile-Treat | Yes | 657.45 |
| RandomCryptoUser123 | Yes | 364.18 |
| UP777 | Yes | 205.86 |
| Ilya31 | Yes | 200 |
| DaSiEbe | Yes | 181.82 |
| ArBr | Yes | 108.11 |
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-russia-capture-pokrovsk-before-november
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