
Resolved No on 1 Dec 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 8.5% on 24 Oct 2025. Before it settled, across the 39 daily closes on record from 24 Oct 2025 to 1 Dec 2025, the highest close was 18% on 26 Oct 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 1 Dec 2025. Its largest one-day move was 9.5 points up, to 18% on 26 Oct 2025. $107.85K traded over the market's life.
37 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 12, 4:05 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 39 points, 24 Oct 2025 – 1 Dec 2025, chart shows 0%–25%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 24 Oct 2025 | 8.5% |
| 1 Dec 2025 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| AlexKazak | Yes | 753.6 |
| MuchAdo2BRN2B | Yes | 670.79 |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 459.21 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the train station in Orikhiv located on Pryvokzalna Vulytsia by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. The train station will be considered captured if any part of the icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the listed date ET, the market will resolve to “No”. Once Russia captures the train station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Train station location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/1-c65ebdaaff.png Train station location in Orikhiv: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/2-b63c422f94.png Orikhiv Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/3-aee64f6cc6.png Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/DrzoGJft79yx9dxd9 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
| Yes |
| 306.46 |
| NO1Amm | Yes | 300 |
| Vehicle | Yes | 191.26 |
| Revolving-Cushion | Yes | 190.6 |
| Crimson Falcon C79A | Yes | 190.34 |
| Crimson Vector F03A | Yes | 174 |
| 0xRocket666 | Yes | 150 |
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