
Resolved No on 1 Jun 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.5%. Yes opened at 17.5% on 22 Apr 2026. Before it settled, across the 41 daily closes on record from 22 Apr 2026 to 1 Jun 2026, the highest close was 23% on 29 Apr 2026 and the lowest 0.5% on 1 Jun 2026. Its largest one-day move was 13 points up, to 23% on 29 Apr 2026. $46.48K traded over the market's life.
27 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Sep 29, 10:19 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 41 points, 22 Apr 2026 – 1 Jun 2026, chart shows 0%–30%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 22 Apr 2026 | 17.5% |
| 1 Jun 2026 | 0.5% |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 51.026680° N, 35.262808° E in Myropillia, Sumy Oblast, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain - Assessed Russian Advances Shading under the following layers will not qualify: - Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas - Claimed Russian Territory Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Myropillia1.png Intersection Location in Myropillia: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Myropillia2.png Myropillia Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Myropillia3.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/rxYpAiXxoUwi8tCbA The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
| TENETENET | Yes | 89.61 |
| efef94 | Yes | 63.33 |
| triklozoid | Yes | 50 |
| v.tii | Yes | 18 |
| Neon Beacon EBCC | Yes | 15.83 |
| Mithra | Yes | 15.38 |
| Juliauss | Yes | 15 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-russia-capture-myropillia-by-may-31
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