Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.5%. Yes opened at 21.5% on 10 Dec 2025. Before it settled, the high was 21.5% on 10 Dec 2025 and the low 0.5% on 1 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 6.5 points down, to 15% on 11 Dec 2025. $26.61K traded over the market's life.
29 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 2, 8:31 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 24 points, 10 Dec 2025 – 1 Jan 2026, chart shows 0%–30%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 10 Dec 2025 | 21.5% |
| 1 Jan 2026 | 0.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| happyfriend | Yes | 624.03 |
| Dankwizart420 | Yes | 428.57 |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 396 |
| Emerald Pioneer D14A | Yes | 262 |
| Crimson Vector F03A | Yes | 151 |
| 0xRocket666 | Yes | 150 |
| Bold Scout BD7E | Yes | 117 |
| 26lkkdasdsa | Yes | 106.94 |
| Jade Harbor B075 | Yes | 97 |
| Bright Signal 14DE | Yes | 57 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection between Derzhavna Vulytsya and Slobozhanska Vulytsya located in Drobysheve by December 31, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET. The intersection station will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by November 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/D1.png Intersection Location in Drobysheve: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/D2.png Drobysheve Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/D3.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/v4o2xVfT89B3LHKM7 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-russia-capture-drobysheve-by-december-31
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