Will Russia capture Chasiv Yar before October?

politicsResolved

No, settled Oct 1, 2024 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$137.2K

Resolved

Settled

Oct 1, 2024 UTC

Topic roomRussia–Ukraine

Where it stands

Resolved No on 1 Oct 2024.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.5%. Yes opened at 23% on 15 Aug 2024. Before it settled, across the 48 daily closes on record from 15 Aug 2024 to 1 Oct 2024, the highest close was 30.5% on 22 Aug 2024 and the lowest 0.5% on 1 Oct 2024. Its largest one-day move was 9 points down, to 7% on 8 Sep 2024. $137.19K traded over the market's life.

48 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Oct 2, 9:26 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 48 points, 15 Aug 2024 – 1 Oct 2024

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
15 Aug 2024	23.0%
1 Oct 2024	0.5%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
makingfuture	Yes	4.06K
pierceheaven	Yes	3.8K
DaSiEbe	Yes	2K

10 of 48 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Chasiv Yar railroad station located on Pryvokazlna Vulytsia by September 30, 2024 at 11:59 PM ET. The railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by September 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”. Once Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Train Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Chasiv+Yar+Train+Station.png Chasiv Yar Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Chasiv+Yar+Ukraine+Location.png The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.