Analytics
Resolved No on 16 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.3%. Yes opened at 42.5% on 18 Dec 2025. Before it settled, across the 30 daily closes on record from 18 Dec 2025 to 16 Jan 2026, the highest close was 70% on 20 Dec 2025 and the lowest 0.7% on 16 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 24 points up, to 70% on 20 Dec 2025. $739.6K traded over the market's life.
149 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 17, 8:21 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 30 points, 18 Dec 2025 – 16 Jan 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 18 Dec 2025 | 42.5% |
| 16 Jan 2026 | 0.7% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| elPolloLoco | Yes | 73.28K |
| Audrey.d | Yes | 20K |
| K-ALPHA | Yes | 8.16K |
| hahahahawar | Yes | 2.27K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Myrnohrad by January 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Myrnohrad will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the January 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. The territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities such as "Rodynske" with a darker grey line. If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, however the shading does not precisely match up with the border such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Once Russia captures the entirety of Myrnohrad, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Myrnohrad Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/myrnohrad.jpeg Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/qCLFQNiDKN2ABe5Q9 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
| bajarna | Yes | 1.71K |
| nemothenoone | Yes | 1.42K |
| BaluH | Yes | 954.87 |
| grgerg | Yes | 651.56 |
| Vicious-Plywood | Yes | 614.92 |
| Dankwizart420 | Yes | 526.32 |
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-russia-capture-all-of-myrnohrad-by
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