Analytics
Resolved No on 8 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 32% on 9 Dec 2025. Before it settled, the high was 38% on 16 Dec 2025 and the low 0.1% on 8 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 27 points down, to 11.5% on 17 Dec 2025. $460.44K traded over the market's life.
125 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 9, 8:21 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 32 points · 9 Dec 2025 – 8 Jan 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 9 Dec 2025 | 32.0% |
| 8 Jan 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| SharkBankman | Yes | 9.34K |
| amused85 | Yes | 4.18K |
| ALMOST | Yes | 3K |
| io3 | Yes | 2.06K |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by January 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the Russian government or military publicly and officially announces a ceasefire or “truce” in its war against Ukraine that is explicitly tied to Christmas or Orthodox Christmas for the 2025–26 holiday period. A qualifying announcement must: The January 2023 unilateral “Orthodox Christmas” ceasefire order is an example of a qualifying announcement. The announcement alone is sufficient: the truce does not need to be accepted by Ukraine or actually upheld in practice, and any later violations, non-compliance, or cancellation will not change the outcome once a qualifying announcement has been made. The primary resolution sources will be official Russian government.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-russia-announce-a-christmas-truce
| rufat | Yes | 1.48K |
| deadmanwallkink | Yes | 1K |
| Olololo | Yes | 1K |
| impeachtrump123 | Yes | 862.25 |
| omidog06 | Yes | 839.11 |
| bober2001 | Yes | 788.51 |
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