Analytics
Resolved Yes on 8 Oct 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 100%. Yes opened at 27% on 7 Oct 2026. Before it settled, the high was 100% on 8 Oct 2026 and the low 27% on 7 Oct 2026. Its largest one-day move was 73 points up, to 100% on 8 Oct 2026. $71.04K traded over the market's life.
32 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 8, 11:51 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 2 points, 7 Oct 2026 – 8 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 7 Oct 2026 | 27.0% |
| 8 Oct 2026 | 100.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Peupo012 | No | 10.52K |
| Smallcoins | No | 10.15K |
| Vodka- | No | 6.19K |
| yesworld28 | No | 3.76K |
| CrazyDeLaCaks | No | 1.09K |
| friginirick | No | 1.05K |
| Cescoli | No | 950 |
| Neon Pioneer 64D7 | No | 537.52 |
| Bobic | No | 410.85 |
| MyLastStand | No | 400 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
Lionel Messi is scheduled to play his final match for the Argentina men's national team against Benin on October 6, 2026, at 7:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Cristiano Ronaldo posts about Lionel Messi from his X account (@Cristiano) or his Instagram account (@cristiano) between October 6, 2026, 7:00 PM ET and October 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A post is about Lionel Messi if it names Messi, tags his account, or includes an image or video in which Messi is clearly identifiable. Main feed posts, quote posts, reply posts, Instagram comments and Instagram Stories published by the listed accounts count toward a "Yes" resolution. Reposts and shares of another account's post without added text, likes, and posts made by Ronaldo's representatives, sponsors or any other account do not count. Posts made during a period in which an account is verifiably compromised, as confirmed by Cristiano Ronaldo or the platform, do not qualify. A qualifying post that is later deleted still counts, provided it was captured by screenshots or credible reporting while live. This market resolves on the posting window above regardless of whether the match is played as scheduled. The resolution sources for this market will be Cristiano Ronaldo's verified X account (https://x.com/Cristiano) and his verified Instagram account (https://www.instagram.com/cristiano/). Only the listed accounts count for this market; posts from any other account have no bearing on the resolution.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-ronaldo-post-about-messi-by-october-7
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