Analytics
Resolved No on 25 Jan 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.7%. Yes opened at 44.5% on 15 Nov 2024. Before it settled, across the 72 daily closes on record from 15 Nov 2024 to 25 Jan 2025, the highest close was 44.5% on 15 Nov 2024 and the lowest 0.3% on 15 Dec 2024. Its largest one-day move was 42 points down, to 2.9% on 16 Nov 2024. $6.9M traded over the market's life.
51 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 26, 2:57 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 72 points, 15 Nov 2024 – 25 Jan 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 15 Nov 2024 | 44.5% |
| 25 Jan 2025 | 0.4% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 174.26K |
| whitedonald | Yes | 603.99 |
| Bimzz | Yes | 585.83 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump appoints Robert O'Brien as Secretary of Defense by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A candidate will be considered to have been appointed if they are confirmed to the position through a senate vote, appointed through a recess appointment, or are otherwise officially made the Secretary of Defense. This market will resolve based on the first Trump candidate who is appointed to this position - if another candidate is appointed to this position first, this market will immediately resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is information from the U.S. Government.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-trumps-defense-secretary
| Yes |
| 550 |
| Coral Horizon 646D | Yes | 550 |
| Azure Maven 6394 | Yes | 525 |
| Violet Quasar A109 | Yes | 500 |
| Indigo Raven 673D | Yes | 500 |
| Jade Signal 6542 | Yes | 500 |
| Royal Tide BBD6 | Yes | 500 |
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