Analytics
Resolved No on 18 Dec 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 15.5% on 14 Aug 2024. Before it settled, across the 127 daily closes on record from 14 Aug 2024 to 18 Dec 2024, the highest close was 15.5% on 14 Aug 2024 and the lowest 0.1% on 2 Dec 2024. $288.17K traded over the market's life.
66 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Dec 18, 8:55 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 127 points, 14 Aug 2024 – 18 Dec 2024, chart shows 0%–20%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 14 Aug 2024 | 15.5% |
| 18 Dec 2024 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 143.46K |
| CabbageMerchant | Yes | 7.57K |
| laura92 | Yes | 4K |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Robert F. Kennedy Jr. receives between 4% (inclusive) and 5% (exclusive) of the popular vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based off the official vote count once all States and D.C. have certified their votes.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/rfk-popular-vote-share
| Yes |
| 1.18K |
| Bigdog666 | Yes | 907.5 |
| Glamorous-Comprehension | Yes | 783.33 |
| Hunts | Yes | 760.51 |
| bruhmoment69 | Yes | 714.29 |
| FITAID | Yes | 540.94 |
| cernakulia | Yes | 300 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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