Analytics
Resolved No on 5 Nov 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.7%. Yes opened at 14% on 9 May 2024. Before it settled, the high was 46% on 30 May 2024 and the low 0.3% on 26 Oct 2024. Its largest one-day move was 24 points up, to 40% on 21 May 2024. $530.62K traded over the market's life.
55 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Nov 6, 9:41 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 181 points · 9 May 2024 – 5 Nov 2024
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 9 May 2024 | 14.0% |
| 5 Nov 2024 | 0.3% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| kamala-is-brat | Yes | 600 |
| yaba | Yes | 588.73 |
| venture | Yes | 270.3 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Robert F. Kennedy Jr. engages in a live, publicly broadcast debate with either Joe Biden or Donald Trump by November 4, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Both in-person debates and virtual debates will count toward a "Yes" resolution for this market. The resolution source for this market will be footage of such a debate, however a consensus of credible sources will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-rfk-jr-debate-biden-or-trump
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
| Yes |
| 112 |
| HELLOW3W | Yes | 100 |
| Fab768a91f08a1AF60abCaaC0143a24168697DB4 | Yes | 86.21 |
| qwerdd35 | Yes | 24.52 |
| qeres | Yes | 24.31 |
| cvbng | Yes | 22.89 |
| asfdzasdw | Yes | 20.69 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
