Analytics
Trading ended on 24 Oct 2026 with Yes at 4.5%; Polymarket has not settled it yet.
Across the 282 daily closes on record from 15 Jan 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (7 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 52% on 23 May 2026 and the lowest 1.5% on 28 Sep 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 2.9%; a month before, 2.3%. Its largest one-day move was 39 points down, to 3.5% on 16 Feb 2026.
7-9 ranks second of the 2 outcomes in “How many Republican House Incumbents will not win their Primary?”. 4-6 leads at 90.6%.
$8.92K has traded since listing.
The largest Yes position is Unfortunate-Particle with 2.8K shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 4.6K. Ten wallets hold 89.8% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Polymarket record as of Oct 30, 7:30 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 282 points, 15 Jan 2026 – 30 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 15 Jan 2026 | 18.0% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 3.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 4.62K |
| Unfortunate-Particle | Yes | 2.8K |
| Dr.PNL | Yes | 328.42 |
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September. This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections. An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered. This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market. The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/how-many-republican-house-incumbents-will-not-win-their-primary
| Rundown-Regard | Yes | 199.99 |
| 2B9S | Yes | 168.43 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 156.97 |
| animal.bean | Yes | 155.52 |
| awgraewrfa | Yes | 149.99 |
| liq2 | Yes | 128 |
| SnapElectionAvoider | No | 114.71 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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