Will Reiwa Shinsengumi be part of the governing coalition as a result of the 2026 Japanese snap election?

Resolved

No, settled Feb 18, 2026 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$6.2K

Resolved

Settled

Feb 18, 2026 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 18 Feb 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.8%. Yes opened at 50% on 28 Jan 2026. Before it settled, across the 22 daily closes on record from 28 Jan 2026 to 18 Feb 2026, the highest close was 50% on 28 Jan 2026 and the lowest 0.3% on 18 Feb 2026. Its largest one-day move was 38 points down, to 12% on 29 Jan 2026. $6.2K traded over the market's life.

40 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Feb 19, 4:25 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 22 points, 28 Jan 2026 – 18 Feb 2026

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
28 Jan 2026	50.0%
18 Feb 2026	0.3%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
lokucx	Yes	307.64
tsadsjak	Yes	295.6
cghvjhub	Yes	275.74

10 of 40 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

General elections are scheduled to be held in Japan on February 8, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed party is part of the first governing, non-caretaker coalition formed as a result of the next Japanese general election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A party will be considered part of the governing coalition only if, following the election, at least one member of that party is formally appointed as a Cabinet minister by the Prime Minister. The existence or non-existence of a written coalition agreement will not be determinative for purposes of this market. A party that supports the government through a confidence-and-supply arrangement, legislative cooperation, or voting support, but does not hold any Cabinet minister positions, will not be considered part of the governing coalition for purposes of this market. If one party holds a majority and provides all Cabinet ministers, that party is the sole governing party, and all other parties are considered not part of the governing coalition. This market may resolve once the Prime Minister is elected by the National Diet and the Cabinet is formally appointed and announced under non-caretaker circumstances. If the composition of the governing coalition is not known by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting regarding the formation of the governing coalition. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on official statements or documentation from the Japanese government, including the Prime Minister’s Office or the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications (https://www.soumu.go.jp/).