Analytics
Resolved No on 30 Jul 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 94.5%. Yes opened at 50% on 22 Jul 2026. Before it settled, across the 8 daily closes on record from 22 Jul 2026 to 30 Jul 2026 (1 day in that span have no close), the highest close was 50% on 22 Jul 2026 and the lowest 5.5% on 30 Jul 2026. Its largest one-day move was 30 points down, to 20% on 23 Jul 2026. $477.58 traded over the market's life.
8 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jul 31, 6:10 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 8 points, 22 Jul 2026 – 30 Jul 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 22 Jul 2026 | 50.0% |
| 30 Jul 2026 | 5.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| adaanda | Yes | 340 |
| .Menthe | Yes | 49.98 |
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 43.99 |
| bjprolo | Yes | 5 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve based on Reformation's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. As of market creation, the IPO is scheduled to price on July 30 (ET). If no such IPO occurs by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before October 2026". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading. In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/reformation-ipo-closing-market-cap-20260721212426797
| rocketcrypto | Yes | 5 |
| Weepy-Item | Yes | 5 |
| WMNB | Yes | 5 |
| e46m3 | Yes | 1.39 |
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