Analytics
Resolved Yes on 30 Aug 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 99%. Yes opened at 45% on 28 Aug 2026. Before it settled, across the 3 daily closes on record from 28 Aug 2026 to 30 Aug 2026, the highest close was 99.4% on 29 Aug 2026 and the lowest 45% on 28 Aug 2026. Its largest one-day move was 54 points up, to 99.4% on 29 Aug 2026. $7.59K traded over the market's life.
14 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Aug 31, 11:41 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 3 points, 28 Aug 2026 – 30 Aug 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 28 Aug 2026 | 45.0% |
| 30 Aug 2026 | 99.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 3.51K |
| Ofek4643 | No | 256.11 |
| Attached-Prairie | No | 100 |
| RadioFreeZerg | No | 69.99 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to the next team Rafael Leao officially joins by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If Rafael Leao does not officially join a new team by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "AC Milan". If Rafael Leao joins a team that is not listed, this market will resolve to "Other". If Rafael Leao is released, retires, or is not under contract with any professional team by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". An official transfer announcement prior to the market's close date will immediately resolve this market to the corresponding option. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official announcements from AC Milan and/or the acquiring team. A consensus of credible media reporting may also be used to resolve the market.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/where-will-rafael-leao-transfer-20260612222809594
| PPMT | No | 60 |
| WreckedBag | No | 43.54 |
| Ethical-Bamboo | No | 14 |
| Ivory Quasar 70A8 | No | 14 |
| AntiVaxxer | No | 6.06 |
| clooso | No | 0.94 |
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