Analytics
Resolved No on 30 Aug 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 49.5% on 16 Jun 2026. Before it settled, across the 74 daily closes on record from 16 Jun 2026 to 30 Aug 2026 (2 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 49.5% on 16 Jun 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 29 Aug 2026. Its largest one-day move was 39 points down, to 4.9% on 26 Aug 2026. $1.48K traded over the market's life.
20 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Aug 30, 1:44 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 74 points, 16 Jun 2026 – 30 Aug 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 16 Jun 2026 | 49.5% |
| 30 Aug 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 3.51K |
| balthazar | Yes | 464.85 |
| Deafening-Possible | Yes | 150 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to the next team Rafael Leao officially joins by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If Rafael Leao does not officially join a new team by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "AC Milan". If Rafael Leao joins a team that is not listed, this market will resolve to "Other". If Rafael Leao is released, retires, or is not under contract with any professional team by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". An official transfer announcement prior to the market's close date will immediately resolve this market to the corresponding option. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official announcements from AC Milan and/or the acquiring team. A consensus of credible media reporting may also be used to resolve the market.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/where-will-rafael-leao-transfer-20260612222809594
| Yes |
| 100 |
| agdd | Yes | 61.73 |
| e46m3 | Yes | 28.03 |
| 60fdsf | Yes | 27.83 |
| mustbethewater | Yes | 25 |
| romanew-10-0.5-sport | Yes | 22.46 |
| Mojito9 | Yes | 20.3 |
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