Analytics
Resolved Yes on 2 Feb 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 57%. Yes opened at 40.5% on 30 Jan 2026. Before it settled, the high was 64.5% on 1 Feb 2026 and the low 40.5% on 30 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 17 points up, to 58% on 31 Jan 2026. $28.44K traded over the market's life.
29 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Feb 3, 4:21 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 4 points, 30 Jan 2026 – 2 Feb 2026, chart shows 30%–70%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 30 Jan 2026 | 40.5% |
| 2 Feb 2026 | 57.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| MistahFox | No | 2.61K |
| Tecken | No | 529.41 |
| SneezinTickets | No | 496.73 |
| TENETENET | No | 200 |
| 0xRocket666 | No | 150 |
| Solar Comet 82EA | No | 100 |
| 09F911029D74 | No | 66 |
| funguy11 | Yes | 60.61 |
| 9735 | No | 50 |
| t189 | No | 50 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
Each year on February 2nd, the Punxsutawney Groundhog Club’s ‘Punxsutawney Phil’ groundhog predicts whether there will be 6 more weeks of winter or an early spring, based on whether or not the groundhog sees its shadow. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Punxsutawney Phil sees his shadow, predicting six more weeks of winter, on February 2nd, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Punxsutawney Groundhog Club (https://www.groundhog.org/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-punxsutawney-phil-see-his-shadow
New to prediction markets?
