Analytics
Resolved No on 24 Mar 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 11% on 10 Mar 2026. Before it settled, across the 13 daily closes on record from 10 Mar 2026 to 24 Mar 2026 (2 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 11% on 10 Mar 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 23 Mar 2026. Its largest one-day move was 7.6 points down, to 3.2% on 18 Mar 2026.
50 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Mar 24, 9:33 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 13 points, 10 Mar 2026 – 24 Mar 2026, chart shows 0%–15%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 10 Mar 2026 | 11.0% |
| 24 Mar 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 69.03K |
| cry.eth2 | Yes | 4.34K |
| Insignificant-Affair | Yes | 4.11K |
| wangfuxun | Yes | 900 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve according to how much "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (March 20 - March 22) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures. If there is no final data available by March 29, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Resolution source: https://www.the-numbers.com/
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/project-hail-mary-opening-weekend-box-office
| shine | Yes | 800 |
| Scornful-Conductor | Yes | 750.85 |
| ludobagman | Yes | 594.11 |
| rated | Yes | 593.78 |
| Reliable-Council | Yes | 573.37 |
| Lunar Quasar 8201 | Yes | 500 |
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