Analytics
Resolved No on 7 Apr 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 26.5% on 31 Mar 2026. Before it settled, across the 7 daily closes on record from 31 Mar 2026 to 7 Apr 2026 (1 day in that span have no close), the highest close was 32.5% on 1 Apr 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 7 Apr 2026. Its largest one-day move was 26 points down, to 6.5% on 2 Apr 2026. $29.15K traded over the market's life.
21 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Apr 7, 6:31 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 7 points, 31 Mar 2026 – 7 Apr 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 31 Mar 2026 | 26.5% |
| 7 Apr 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 8.15K |
| bubbadubba | Yes | 8.06K |
| Lunar Meteor B059 | Yes | 994.99 |
| masturbator3000 | Yes | 750 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve according to how much "Project Hail Mary" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its third weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (April 3 - April 5) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures. If there is no final data available by April 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Resolution source: https://www.the-numbers.com/
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/project-hail-mary-3rd-weekend-box-office
| Indigo Tide 215D | Yes | 549.57 |
| products | Yes | 389.85 |
| rated | Yes | 322.88 |
| wefsc | Yes | 289.99 |
| huadhudwq2 | Yes | 240.99 |
| 5-min | Yes | 200 |
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