Analytics
Resolved No on 31 Mar 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.8%. Yes opened at 43.5% on 24 Mar 2026. Before it settled, across the 6 daily closes on record from 24 Mar 2026 to 29 Mar 2026, the highest close was 43.5% on 24 Mar 2026 and the lowest 0.3% on 29 Mar 2026. Its largest one-day move was 20 points down, to 0.3% on 29 Mar 2026. $44.59K traded over the market's life.
38 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Mar 31, 11:35 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 6 points, 24 Mar 2026 – 29 Mar 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 24 Mar 2026 | 43.5% |
| 29 Mar 2026 | 0.3% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 19.23K |
| GooberThaGooner | Yes | 5.01K |
| TENETENET | Yes | 499.98 |
| huadhudwq2 | Yes | 300 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve according to how much "Project Hail Mary" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its second weekend. The "Daily" figures found on the “Domestic Daily” tab on this movie's Box Office Mojo (https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl1993768961/weekend/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (March 27 - March 29) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note, this market will resolve according to the BoxOfficeMojo figures provided under Domestic Daily performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures. If there is no final data available by April 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Resolution source: https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt28650488/
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/project-hail-mary-2nd-weekend-box-office
| paspor | Yes | 285 |
| rabmo2 | Yes | 281.83 |
| Lunar Meteor B059 | Yes | 250 |
| products | Yes | 236.64 |
| Fair-Tan | Yes | 229 |
| rated | Yes | 201.1 |
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