Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Apr 2023.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99%. Yes opened at 28% on 12 Feb 2023. Before it settled, across the 46 daily closes on record from 12 Feb 2023 to 1 Apr 2023 (3 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 28% on 12 Feb 2023 and the lowest 1% on 1 Apr 2023. Its largest one-day move was 8 points down, to 20% on 13 Feb 2023. $8.19K traded over the market's life.
3 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Apr 2, 7:30 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 87 points, 12 Feb 2023 – 17 May 2023
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 12 Feb 2023 | 28.0% |
| 17 May 2023 | 50.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Tide D1BE | Yes | 369.18K |
| Real-Trader | Yes | 200 |
| Jade Atlas 64FA | Yes | 0.67 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if PredictIt (https://www.predictit.org/) adds a new market which users are able to trade on by March 31, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If PredictIt launches a new trading platform with at least one new market which accepts users' trades by March 31, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET the market will also resolve to "Yes". This market cannot resolve to "No" until March 31, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET has passed. The primary resolution source for this market will be the markets page on PredictIt (https://www.predictit.org/markets/), however a consensus of credible sources may also be used.
Resolution source: https://www.predictit.org/markets/
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-predictit-create-a-new-market-by-march-31-2023
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