Analytics
Resolved No on 16 May 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 98.4%. Yes opened at 59% on 20 Mar 2026. Before it settled, across the 37 daily closes on record from 20 Mar 2026 to 16 May 2026 (21 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 87% on 12 May 2026 and the lowest 1.7% on 16 May 2026. Its largest one-day move was 79 points down, to 1.7% on 16 May 2026. $3.71K traded over the market's life.
16 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of May 17, 5:32 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 37 points, 20 Mar 2026 – 16 May 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 20 Mar 2026 | 59.0% |
| 16 May 2026 | 1.7% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Bohemian | Yes | 376.26 |
| TENETENET | Yes | 100 |
| triklozoid | Yes | 50 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pope Leo XIV publishes his encyclical by May 15, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For a letter to qualify it must be commonly understood as an encyclical or declared as an encyclical upon release. Other forms of papal brief, such as a papal bull, will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be information from Pope Leo XIV, official information from the Catholic Church, or a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-pope-leo-xiv-publish-his-encyclical-by-may-15
| Yes |
| 31.36 |
| Colala | Yes | 30 |
| asdssss | Yes | 24 |
| politickler | Yes | 16.39 |
| TooYoungToWin | Yes | 16.12 |
| Gabbers | Yes | 10.94 |
| Lavincey | Yes | 7.69 |
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