Analytics
Resolved No on 17 Jul 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 95.5%. Yes opened at 50% on 10 Jan 2023. Before it settled, across the 542 daily closes on record from 10 Jan 2023 to 17 Jul 2024 (13 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 50% on 10 Jan 2023 and the lowest 0.5% on 9 Jul 2024. Its largest one-day move was 48 points up, to 50% on 10 Jan 2024. $13.7K traded over the market's life.
7 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jul 17, 8:42 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 542 points, 10 Jan 2023 – 17 Jul 2024
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 10 Jan 2023 | 50.0% |
| 17 Jul 2024 | 4.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Silver Ledger A546 | Yes | 1.23M |
| Perky-Pillar | No | 15.23 |
| New-Consulate | No | 8.75 |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Peter Thiel wins the 2024 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official GOP sources, including https://www.gop.com. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/who-will-win-the-us-2024-republican-presidential-nomination
| Quiet Vector BF9A | Yes | 7.48 |
| Amber Signal CB95 | Yes | 6.09 |
| motherbear | Yes | 4.61 |
| Coral Horizon 9B41 | Yes | 0.02 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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