Analytics
Resolved No on 31 Jul 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.7%. Yes opened at 43% on 3 Jul 2026. Before it settled, across the 29 daily closes on record from 3 Jul 2026 to 31 Jul 2026, the highest close was 43% on 3 Jul 2026 and the lowest 0.4% on 31 Jul 2026. Its largest one-day move was 25 points down, to 12.5% on 7 Jul 2026. $1.74K traded over the market's life.
3 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Aug 1, 10:55 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 29 points, 3 Jul 2026 – 31 Jul 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 3 Jul 2026 | 43.0% |
| 31 Jul 2026 | 0.4% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| acal | Yes | 500 |
| TENETENET | Yes | 100 |
| Ivory Ledger C19E | Yes | 13.96 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
Spider-Man: Brand New Day is scheduled to premiere on July 31, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified character dies during "Spider-Man: Brand New Day". Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying death must show the specified character dead on screen, or otherwise that character’s death must clearly be stated to have occurred, even if offscreen (e.g., characters confirm their death in conversation, the funeral of a character occurs, etc.). If a death is reversed through a revival, resurrection, or reanimation that occurs after the character has died, that death will still qualify. Deaths occurring in any timeline or dimension depicted in "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" will count toward resolution. Flashback scenes showing a character alive before their death, as well as dream sequences, hallucinations, or visions of dead characters, will not affect resolution. Characters who are confirmed dead before "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" begins during the film will not count toward this market’s resolution. If a character’s fate is deliberately left ambiguous, it will not qualify toward the resolution of this market. Only deaths confirmed by the end of "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" will qualify. Only events depicted in the official "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" film will count toward resolution. Post-credits scenes count if they are part of the official film, but supplementary materials such as podcasts, comics, books, or other media do not count unless they are explicitly referenced within the film itself. The market will resolve according to the initial theatrical release of "Spider-Man: Brand New Day". If no theatrical release occurs by August 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/who-will-die-in-spider-man-brand-new-day-20260702162526773
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