Analytics
Resolved No on 2 Oct 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 86.2%. Yes opened at 69.5% on 24 Sep 2026. Before it settled, across the 9 daily closes on record from 24 Sep 2026 to 2 Oct 2026, the highest close was 78.5% on 27 Sep 2026 and the lowest 6% on 29 Sep 2026. Its largest one-day move was 70 points down, to 9% on 28 Sep 2026. $32.3K traded over the market's life.
19 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 3, 5:35 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 9 points, 24 Sep 2026 – 2 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 24 Sep 2026 | 69.5% |
| 2 Oct 2026 | 13.8% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| CatalinRadut | Yes | 1.22K |
| kaladin | Yes | 120.97 |
| Muted-Accuracy | Yes | 70.93 |
| a5533 | Yes | 39.5 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
"Patient Zero" (Taylor Swift) releases September 25, 2026 as part of "The Life of a Showgirl: The Encore." This market will resolve to "Yes" if "Patient Zero"'s cumulative global Spotify streams from its release date (September 25, 2026) through the end of its first week (October 1, 2026) are greater than or equal to the specified amount, as displayed at 12:00 PM ET on October 2, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be Spotify's official charts. If this resolution source is unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting (e.g. Billboard, Luminate) may be used instead. If there is no reliable streaming figure available by October 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/taylor-swift-patient-zero-first-week-streams
| PPMT | Yes | 30.05 |
| zmolina | Yes | 23.45 |
| jfkjdfj3 | Yes | 20 |
| antoniopine | Yes | 17.23 |
| bjprolo | Yes | 9.99 |
| Lou3 | Yes | 9.09 |
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