Will PAS win by less than 4% of the vote?

Resolved

No, settled Sep 29, 2025 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$22.3K

Resolved

Settled

Sep 29, 2025 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 29 Sep 2025.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.8%. Yes opened at 50.5% on 16 Sep 2025. Before it settled, across the 14 daily closes on record from 16 Sep 2025 to 29 Sep 2025, the highest close was 50.5% on 16 Sep 2025 and the lowest 0.3% on 29 Sep 2025. Its largest one-day move was 29 points down, to 11.5% on 24 Sep 2025. $22.3K traded over the market's life.

23 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Sep 30, 4:43 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 14 points, 16 Sep 2025 – 29 Sep 2025

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
16 Sep 2025	50.5%
29 Sep 2025	0.3%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Indigo Signal 2966	No	5.67K
Maskache	Yes	2.2K
Ziigmund	Yes	1.41K
gopfan2	Yes	1.34K

10 of 23 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Moldova on September 28, 2025. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the PAS (Party of Action and Solidarity; Partidul Acțiune și Solidaritate) compared with the second place party. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of resolving this market, the 'margin of victory' is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of party list votes received by PAS and the second-place party. Percentages of the votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all votes cast in the 2025 Moldova parliamentary election. If the PAS does not win a plurality of party list votes, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market's resolution will be based solely on the proportion of votes won by this party, not any coalition of which it may be a part. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Central Electoral Commission of the Republic of Moldova (Comisia Electorală Centrală, CEC) (https://a.cec.md/en).