Analytics
Resolved No on 29 Sep 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 40.5% on 16 Sep 2025. Before it settled, the high was 43% on 23 Sep 2025 and the low 0.1% on 29 Sep 2025. Its largest one-day move was 19 points down, to 0.1% on 29 Sep 2025. $13.76K traded over the market's life.
23 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Sep 30, 8:42 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 14 points, 16 Sep 2025 – 29 Sep 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 16 Sep 2025 | 40.5% |
| 29 Sep 2025 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 5.67K |
| Adrianeex | Yes | 3.01K |
| Ziigmund | Yes | 941.78 |
| collins333 | Yes | 678 |
| Delete111 | Yes | 515.73 |
| tradechade | Yes | 457.45 |
| UrsPolar | Yes | 305 |
| fat.batman | Yes | 221 |
| wokerjoesleeper | Yes | 121.46 |
| irinanitu | Yes | 64.52 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Moldova on September 28, 2025. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the PAS (Party of Action and Solidarity; Partidul Acțiune și Solidaritate) compared with the second place party. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of resolving this market, the 'margin of victory' is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of party list votes received by PAS and the second-place party. Percentages of the votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all votes cast in the 2025 Moldova parliamentary election. If the PAS does not win a plurality of party list votes, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market's resolution will be based solely on the proportion of votes won by this party, not any coalition of which it may be a part. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Central Electoral Commission of the Republic of Moldova (Comisia Electorală Centrală, CEC) (https://a.cec.md/en).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/pas-margin-of-victory
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